India is going to lead the growth in global oil demand over the period from 2022 to 2045, as a rising working age population, high economic growth, an expanding middle class and rapid urbanization drive up thirst for the fossil fuel.
The country will add 6.6 million barrels per day to oil demand over the forecast period, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its latest World Oil Outlook.
According to the forecast, by 2045, the country's oil demand will hit 11.7 million barrels per day. This means a 3.6% growth per annum over the next 23 years — the highest among OECD and non-OECD regions.
India's current oil consumption stands at 5.1 million barrels per day, for which it relies on imports to meet 85% of the demand. It is the world's third largest consumer of oil, behind the U.S. and China.
"With an average GDP growth of 6.1% p.a. over the projection period, India is set to remain the fastest-growing major developing country. China and India alone are set to account for more than a third of the global economy in 2045," the report said.
While the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development region will see a 1.1% fall in demand and thereby a reduced share of oil in its energy mix, the non-OECD region is forecasted to have a 1.7% growth rate.
The fall in share of oil demand in OECD countries can be attributed to a massive push to decarbonize the energy mix in the developed world. At the same time, energy hungry developing countries will continue to burn fossil fuels to run their growth engines even as they invest in cleaner sources of energy.
India will add 6.6 million barrels per day to oil demand over the forecast period.
The global working age population (aged between 15–64) is set to increase globally by 826 million over the forecasted period, of which India's share will stand at 156 million.
India's urbanization rate is expected to be 50% by 2045 from 36% in 2022.
