The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new World Energy Outlook 2023 (WEO), released in October, states that “major shifts underway today are set to result in a considerably different global energy system by the end of this decade.”
It puts this down to “the phenomenal rise of clean energy technologies such as solar, wind, electric cars and heat pumps” that is reshaping how everything will be powered. The key conclusions IEA draws in the outlook are: The energy world remains fragile but has effective ways to improve energy security and tackle emissions – the emergence of a new clean energy economy, led by solar PV and electric vehicles (EVs), provides hope for the way forward.
The world is on track to see all fossil fuels peak before 2030 – the momentum behind clean energy transitions is now sufficient for global demand for coal, oil and natural gas to all reach a high point before 2030, with the share of fossil fuels in global primary energy dropping from about 80% now to 73% by 2030.
China has changed the energy world, but now China is changing – momentum behind China’s economic growth is ebbing and there is greater downside potential for fossil fuel demand if it slows further. New dynamics for investment are taking shape – the key to an orderly transition is to scale up investment in all aspects of a clean energy system.
Meeting development needs in a sustainable way is key to moving faster – clean electrification, improvements in efficiency and a switch to lower- and zero-carbon fuels are key levers available to emerging and developing economies to reach their national energy and climate targets. Ample global manufacturing capacity offers considerable upside for solar PV – renewables are set to contribute 80% of new power capacity to 2030.
