Middle East’s Transition to Low-Carbon Future

The Mena region transition towards renewables is well under way as the world faces an urgent demand for climate action and decarbonization.

COP29, held in November 2024, emphasized the critical need to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. In COP28, it was agreed to triple renewables and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 to accelerate the reduction of non-CO2 gases.

The sectors contributing most to CO2 emissions include power generation (30-40% of emissions), industry (25-30%), transportation (20%), and buildings (10-15%). The IEA report on carbon emissions says that total energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 0.8% in 2024, hitting an all-time high of 37.8 Gt CO2. This increase was driven by higher consumption in China, the United States, the Middle East, and India.

The Middle East's energy sector is actively pursuing decarbonization, encouraging more industries to adopt clean technology and reduce emissions. Significant investments are being made in renewables, nuclear energy, and technologies like carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). The region provides crucial platforms facilitating cross-border partnerships, technology transfer, and innovation in green energy initiatives.

The region’s renewable energy market is projected to reach 14% of the generation mix by 2035, with solar PV alone accounting for 11%. The clean energy investment for generation is expected to be around $10bn in 2025.

CCUS, leveraging the region's fossil fuel production, is expected to play a critical role in decarbonization, with a projected CAGR of 44% from 2025 to 2030.

Key energy transition technologies, including hydrogen, is being actively developed. Green hydrogen capacity is expected to grow rapidly at nearly 150% CAGR between 2025 and 2030, though starting from a low base, and by 2028, it is expected to overtake its blue counterpart.

In the last two years in Mena, more than 45 new hydrogen projects have been announced with a total value of more than $100bn and a total hydrogen production capacity of more than 10 million tonnes a year.

Another important means to decarbonize power in the short term is to enhance the performance of the region’s existing gas power infrastructure by converting simple-cycle gas turbines to a combined cycle configuration and upgrading existing assets. These conversions can help generate up to 50% more power without additional fuel or emissions. CCUS solutions are also being deployed with gas-fired power plants, to produce on-demand electricity with very low carbon emissions.

Decarbonization is imperative for mitigating climate change, ensuring energy security, and fostering sustainable economic growth. The way forward for the region is to enable continued investment in transformative innovations and a steadfast commitment to sustainable development.

Editor