India’s primary energy demand mix is expected to undergo a structural transformation over the next 25 years, with oil set to surpass coal as the dominant fuel source, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) World Oil Outlook 2025 report.
Driven by rapid economic growth, an expanding industrial base, and a rising middle class, India—the world’s third-largest energy consumer—is projected to see a notable shift in its energy consumption patterns.
OPEC estimates that the share of coal in India’s primary energy demand, which stood at 45.8 percent in 2024, will decline to 29.6 percent by 2050.
In contrast, the share of oil is expected to increase from 25.6 percent to 31.1 percent over the same period, marking a historic shift in the country’s energy hierarchy.
The share of natural gas is also anticipated to more than double, rising from 5.6 percent in 2024 to 11.6 percent by 2050, reflecting policy support for cleaner fuel alternatives and infrastructure expansion.
Together, oil and gas are projected to account for 42.7 percent of India’s total primary energy demand by mid-century.
Coal, which has long been India’s cheapest and most widely used energy source, will continue to play a significant role in the near term.
OPEC forecasts that India’s coal demand will grow from 10.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2024 to peak at 13.2 mboe/d in 2045, before declining marginally to 12.9 mboe/d by 2050.
This trend is attributed to the increasing adoption of natural gas and renewables in power generation, along with efforts to phase out inefficient coal-fired plants to curb local pollution.
Despite the decline in coal’s share, India remains one of the few major economies where coal demand is projected to rise over the next two decades, largely due to its continued reliance on coal-fired electricity.
In 2024, coal accounted for approximately 75 percent of India’s power generation, or around 1,200 terawatt hours.
Oil demand, meanwhile, is expected to grow sharply—from 5.5 mboe/d in 2024 to 13.6 mboe/d in 2050—driven primarily by the transportation and industrial sectors, particularly petrochemicals.
Residential and commercial uses, such as LPG for cooking, will also contribute to this increase.
India’s natural gas consumption is forecast to rise from 1.2 mboe/d in 2024 to 5.1 mboe/d by 2050.
This growth is supported by favourable energy policies, the proliferation of natural gas vehicles, and efforts to expand gasification in residential areas to reduce dependence on traditional biomass fuels.
However, the report suggests that India may fall short of its target to raise the share of gas to 15 percent of the energy mix by 2030.
