Opec Revises down 2025 Oil Demand Growth due to US Tariffs

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 is revised down slightly to 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, according to the Opec Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) – April 2025.

This minor adjustment is mainly due to received data for 1Q-25 and the expected impact on oil demand given recently announced US tariffs, the report noted.

In the OECD, oil demand is expected to grow by 0.04 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to expand by almost 1.25 mb/d in 2025.

The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 is revised down slightly to about 1.3 mb/d. The OECD is expected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026.

“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, the near-term trajectory is now subject to higher uncertainty given the recent tariff-related dynamics. Consequently, the global economic growth forecasts are revised down slightly to 3.0% for 2025, and to 3.1% for 2026,” Opec said.