Oman’s Oil Production to Top 1.2mln bpd in 2028

Oman’s oil production is forecast to progressively rise to reach 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) — ahead of schedule — by 2028, bolstered in part by commitments from the OPEC+ alliance to roll back output cuts, according to international ratings agency S&P Global Ratings.

This compares with output of around 1 million bpd in 2024, which was earlier projected to reach approximately 1.1 million bpd by 2027. The upward revision reflects a combination of OPEC+-driven measures and expectations of incremental growth in Oman’s production at a rate of 2-3 per cent annually over the next couple of years.

“Incorporated into our growth forecast is the anticipation that oil production will progressively increase towards 1.2 million bpd by 2028, ahead of schedule and up from 1 million bpd produced in 2024, following recent announcements from OPEC+ that it would further increase production”, S&P Global noted in its recent outlook statement affirming Oman’s sovereign ratings at 'BBB-/A-3'.

Furthermore, condensate and gas production are anticipated to increase in the medium term, supported by private investment. This trend is expected to continue notwithstanding the government’s pivot to green hydrogen production, initially targeted at 1 million tonnes by 2030, the report said.

Citing Oman’s strategy to achieve Net Zero emissions by 2050, the report also highlighted the government’s success in attracting foreign investors to develop its liquid ammonia and hydrogen production capabilities and replace gas in electricity generation. These efforts will ultimately enable the Sultanate of Oman to become a “top exporter of liquid ammonia and hydrogen” by 2030, it noted.

“Oman has the potential to develop low-cost solar and wind energy, given its abundance of land, with renewable energy currently representing about 18% of the country's total power generation. Recently, it was announced that one of two 500-megawatt solar power plants (Manah-1) generated 1 terawatt hour (TWh) of electricity since trial operations started in January 2025. The solar project is expected to produce 1.5 TWh annually and underscores that progress in Oman’s renewable energy sector is well underway,” S&P said.

Playing a key role in driving energy sector growth in the Sultanate of Oman are Energy Development Oman (EDO) and OQ — the integrated energy group of Oman. As “national champions charged with managing Oman's energy sector developments,” these two companies have worked to realize efficiencies and pursue growth opportunities across the sector, the ratings agency added.